Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: East region

Publiziert 23. Juli 2019 | Von Torsten Jinczek

East Area

Best seed prognosis: According to this FiveThirtyEight version, high seed Duke has the best chance of advancing to the Final Four in the entire area (53 percent probability) in addition to the best likelihood of winning the national title (19 percent).
The Blue Devils are led by four soon-to-be first-round draft selections, such as Zion Williamson, one of the most significant talents in recent memory. Duke is a walking highlight reel to the offensive end and much stingier on defense than many might realize. This is among Mike Krzyzewski’s most-balanced teams and jobs to be his first since 2010 to position within the top six in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and defense metrics. That team won the national title.1
This team lacks, however, is touch across the perimeter. Duke shoots a grisly 30.2 percent from beyond the arc, the worst mark one of tournament-qualifying teams. Within an offensive era increasingly dominated by distance and perimeter scoring, the Blue Devils could buck the trend punishing the rim.
On the other side of the area is that the winner of the Big Ten conference championship, Michigan State. As their reward, the No. 2 Spartans have the honor of a possible matchup from the top overall seed in the Elite Eight. Head coach Tom Izzo was none too pleased. The Spartans are pummeled by injuries but remain among the most balanced teams in the nation, standing within the top eight in Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and defense metrics.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 4 Virginia Tech. Directed by the celebrity pairing of Kerry Blackshear Jr. and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Hokies are a balanced squad that ranks among Pomeroy’s Top 25 teams on both defense and offense. Although they have dropped eight occasions, only two of these were double-digits. Virginia Tech also includes a not-altogether-unfriendly attraction, with exceptionally winnable opening matches against Saint Louis (87 percent) and the Mississippi State-Liberty winner (63 percent) before most probably running to Duke’s juggernaut. We provide the Hokies a decent 25 percent chance against the Blue Devils — along with a 54 percent chance against whoever emerges from the bottom of the area if they do manage to knock off Duke.
Don’t bet on: No. 3 LSU. With trainer Will Wade embroiled in a pay-for-play scandal and his team probably overvalued as a 3-seed, the Bayou Bengals could be ripe for an upset in this particular tournament. They ranked only 18th in Pomeroy’s ratings — roughly the quality of a No. 5 seed — thanks in large part to a defense that didn’t even crack the country’s top 60 in corrected efficiency. (This showed up in the 51 second-half things that they allowed to Florida while shedding their first game of the SEC tournament.) Their NCAA path is not very easy, either: Yale is no pushover as a No. 14 seed, nor will be potential second-round competitor Maryland, also we all give the Tigers a mere 26 percent likelihood of beating Michigan State when the teams meet in the Sweet Sixteen. That is easily the lowest-rated top-three seed within the field.
Cinderella watch: No. 11 Belmont. The East is top-heavy, together with Duke and Michigan State soaking up most of the Final Four chances. But the Bruins are still an intriguing lower-seeded group because of an impressive offense led by do-everything swingman Dylan Windler. According to Pomeroy, Belmont ranks 20th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (and second nationwide in raw points per game behind Gonzaga), whereas Windler was one of only 3 players nationally to average 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. Although the Bruins do have to acquire a play-in game against Temple just to make the field of 64 — we provide them a 59 percent opportunity — they’d have a very aggressive 39 percent probability of bothering Maryland in the first round and an even better chance against the LSU/Yale winner.
Player to watch: Cassius Winston, Michigan State
Three decades ago, zzo stated he believed his 6-foot-1 freshman could be Michigan State’s greatest passer since Magic Johnson. The Spartans‘ do-everything point guard — one of the best facilitators from the nation — is supporting his trainer’s comment. Only Murray State’s Ja Morant, a surefire lottery pick in this year’s draft, has a greater assist rate than Winston (46.0 percent). And behind Winston, the Spartans help on the highest rate of field goals in the nation.
The junior also appears to be Izzo’s top scorer and among the country’s greatest perimeter threats, shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc. As injuries have relentlessly sapped the Spartans of the on-court creation, Winston has elevated his game to compensate. As he set it to The Athletic,“that I must do a lot for my team to win“
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Central Florida over No. 8 VCU (47 percent); No. 11 Belmont* over No. 6 Maryland (39 percent); No. 10 Minnesota over No. 7 Louisville (34 percent)